Voter ID Laws, Fraud By Voters
Is there enough fraud by voters to warrant tough voter ID laws? Should we enact laws if the data doesn’t support a need?
In this episode, Kim and Dan discuss voter ID laws, fraud by voters, voting as a right versus privilege and more centering on voting.
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Voter ID Laws, Fraud By Voters
Wondering how Kim feels about voting, laws and fraud by voters, and where the information comes from?
This is the conservative think tank Heritage Foundation
This is their page on voter fraud. Check out that paragraph. They absolutely believe fraud exists. Look at those numbers! Scary!!!
Here’s what you have to remember about those numbers... they list cases going back to 1982. Let’s just look at the hard and fast numbers and do some back of the envelope math.
1285 proven incidences since 1982. We’re not even gonna talk about the fact that those cases weren’t necessarily tried and who even knows if they were done with malicious intentions.
1285 is a hard number to do math with... let’s call it 2000. So we’ll give them a big old head state. 2000 cases! Damn!
Now let’s look at all those votes cast. They said there’s fraud in 2020, but that’s hard to put into this equation so we’ll leave in those cases (plus the 715 BONUS cases that don’t even exist).
Let’s head over to my favorite place… US Elections Project. All this Prof. does is list turnout information. We need that.
Between 1982 and 2018, there were 10 midterm elections for an average turnout of 51.09%
Between 1984 and 2016, there were 9 presidential elections for an average turnout of 56.76%
In 1982, the population of America was 231.7 million and as of 2018, our rate of growth in America was .6%.
Now, here’s where it gets tricky. The November 1982 census says the voting age population in America was 169,342,000. As you know, the Census counts everyone living in America, so we kind of have to do a little broad strokes math here… NCSL says that, in 2019, out of the 322 million people living in America, 26.1 million Americans are not able to cast a ballot. We can’t find ages out, so we have to do backwards math here.
We’ll apply the same rate of growth, but backwards, to that 26.1. So we’d have 5.8 million Americans unable to cast a ballot. Since 73.16% of Americans were over 18 in 1982, we’ll apply that here again and that’s 4.2 million.
Ok! Now we’re ready to get into it! We’ve got the 1982 eligible voter number - 165,142,000!
With the rate of growth so low, and again, to GIVE voter fraud even BETTER odds… we’re gonna toss that rate of growth out and pretend that in every election, there are 165,142,000 eligible voters. Let’s apply that number to turnout.
Midterm elections = 10 elections @ 51.09% turnout of 165,142,000 voters is… 84,371,047 voters per election
Presidential elections = 9 elections @ 56.76% turnout of 165,142,000 voters is… 93,734,599 voters per election
So not including primary votes, which actually now gives voter fraud straight BONKERS odds, this is how many votes have been cast since 1982…
Midterms = 84,371,047 x 10 = 843,710,470
Presidential = 93,734,599 x 10 = 937,345,990
TOTAL = 1,781,056,460
Ok… now… we gave voter fraud bonkers odd, AND included 715 bonus cases that don’t even exist.
What’s 2000/1,781,056,450? 0.000001122929028
That’s FIVE zeros BEHIND the decimal! And that’s GIVING them odds! That’s helping almost as much as possibly can!
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